The History and Ignorance of “Sky Is Falling” Theories
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It’s time to take a look at the most current “sky is falling” prediction, AGW or human-caused catastrophic global warming. A Swedish scientist, Svante Arrheniu, was the first to claim that fossil fuel combustion may eventually result in enhanced global warming. In 1896 he proposed a relation between atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations and temperature. This research did not have much of an impact because scientists at that time believed that the human influence on climate was insignificant compared to nature. In 1998, Michael Mann, Raymond Bradley, and Malcolm Hughes created the “Hockey Stick Graph” model that strongly suggested that increases in CO2 had a major influence on global temperature. In fact, if their model was correct, if we continued to pump CO2 into the atmosphere, through the burning of fossil fuels, it wouldn’t be too long, probably within our lifetime, that the earth would become uninhabitable. Models from other climate scientists tended to show the same result and the AGW hypothesis gained significantly new strength, especially in popular culture. In other words, a “perfect storm, scientific consensus” was born. It should be noted that the birth of “scientific consensus” is not all that unusual. It usually happens when an idea takes an area of the scientific community by storm and everybody buys into it without much questioning. It is also true that “scientific consensuses” are often ultimately proven wrong. Some notable examples are: |
| The Clovis People who were considered to be the first humans to settle in the western hemisphere. Initially, this seemed like an excellent hypothesis. Clovis sites were found in many places easily identified by a specific arrowhead design. Once the idea became almost totally accepted and the reputations of prominent archeologists were set in stone, it became literally impossible to fight the consensus and those archeologists who believed that they had found earlier sites were denounced and sent to the back of the bus; their careers destroyed. | |
It took many decades for archeology to begin to recognize earlier sites and to rethink how humanity first discovered and then populated the western hemisphere. This research is still ongoing with full knowledge that we are still making new discoveries about how and when humanity populated the planet. One of my favorites was the “scientific consensus” that the earth was protected from comets and asteroids by our atmosphere. Believe it or not in the 1950s science believed that all meteor craters were really volcanic produced, including the famous meteor crater in Arizona. It wasn’t until the late 50s that a young Princeton PhD student began studying impact craters, especially the Barringer Meteor Crater in Arizona, that someone began to seriously suggest that these craters were caused by the impact of meteors or comets from outer space. This young man had an uphill battle, always true when fighting a “scientific consensus,” and he didn’t win his first supporters until he discovered a substance in these craters that could only be explained by the ground being struck at high impact from an outside source. Still, there were plenty of geology scientists that were not convinced. |
| Fast forward to 1993 when Shoemaker, his wife Carolyn, and David Levy were deeply involved in discovering Earth-Orbit Crossing Asteroids, hoping to be able to give the world an early warning should one be on a collision track with the Earth. Instead, they discovered a comet, really a string of them, somewhat like a string of pearls, on a collision path with the planet Jupiter. This would be the first time that science had ever observed a comet hitting a planet. Even at this late date, there were still plenty of geologists who doubted that comets could do much damage to a planet with an atmosphere. So there was much discussion about what we would be able to see when the string of comets hit Jupiter. The consensus what that the massive atmosphere of Jupiter would swallow the comet without a trace visible to the eye of the Hubble Telescope, trained on Jupiter, just in case. Well, as the comets struck the planet explosions that size of the earth were clearly visible. From that moment on, there was no doubt that the earth is in potential danger of being struck by a major asteroid or comet; an ELE that could easily destroy the entire human race. |  |
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As I have stated earlier, the birth of the “perfect storm scientific consensus” around AGW really took hold in 1998 when the El Nino of 1997-1998 created higher global temperatures than had been seen for over 100 years. This event seemed to support the climate models that were being developed to predict the temperatures that the earth might experience due the continued use of fossil fuels, which seemingly poured massive amounts of CO2 into the atmosphere. In almost every case the models predicted catastrophic global warming, the end of life on the planet. The timeline and early results varied but the conclusion was inevitable. |
However, it is important to remember that these models were based on an untested hypothesis. Science depends on the thorough testing of any hypothesis, usually done by other scientists to be sure that bias doesn’t enter the equation. In this instance, dealing with global climate change, it would take years, if not decades, to actually determine the accuracy of the predictions. The scientists involved, committed (as most scientists are) to their models, believed that we didn’t have years to do the proper testing and even though they knew that some facets of the hypothesis would ultimately need to be adjusted, they were convinced that the basic concept was correct: the earth was in trouble because of human activity and if something wasn’t done immediately, the next generation would not live out their lives; they would die in a world too hot to maintain human life. In their opinion the sky was really falling. Panic set in and has continued unabated to the current time. The true believers, as you will see by the many predictions that were made, all speak of dire consequences if humanity doesn’t act immediately. Here’s a list of some of the most ridiculous predictions: The sea levels are rising at an alarming rate and could rise as much as 20 feet in a couple of generations. There’s no doubt that sea levels have been rising for the past one hundred-plus years, as we come out of the mini ice age of the late 1700s and early 1800s, but the rate of rise has not increased. Dr. Nils-Axel Morner of Stockholm University has attacked the IPCC report predicting major sea level rise. This myth is alive and well today with the “scientific consensus” in full support of the catastrophic predictions being made. The fact that this just isn’t happening doesn’t stop the consensus from continuing to publish outlandish predictions. |
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Polar bears are dying because of the temperature increase in the Artic. This is either a clever lie designed by an immoral public relations person, to get the children on their side so they could help convince their parents as to the “fact” of AGW, or poor research on the part of the “climate scientists” responsible for the panic. The true population of polar bears is difficult to ascertain; however, today the estimate worldwide is approximately 39,000. York, Dowsley, Cornwell, Kuc, and Taylor do not believe that polar bears are under any threat due to any climate crisis. In fact, their research shows that polar bears have already lived through three climate changes where the Artic was much warmer that it is expected to be during this period of warming. The Artic is melting. In 2009, Al Gore, the High Priest of Global Warming, stated, with a 75 percent probability, that the entire Artic would be ice free in summers by 2013. This is only one of his spectacular misses. He really got nothing right and yet is still highly revered within the media; they will never learn! Actually, during October 2013, sea-ice levels grew at their fastest pace since records have been kept and September 2016 was another record-breaking month. It seems as if Mother Nature is playing with these “experts”; every time they make a prediction or have a meeting she makes them look like the fools they are. In 2009 NASA scientist James Hanson, of hockey stick fame stated that we only have four years to save the earth. Hanson has as great an ego as Gore and appears to be just as wrong. What these faux scientists do when they are proven wrong is state they just had the timing wrong, but that their basic thesis is spot on. They have gotten wiser, their drop dead now is about 50 years out; in this way they can escape the ridicule of being wrong almost all of the time. In the same year, Canada’s Green Party wrote that we only had hours left to stop global warming. These guys are a bit different. They are honestly convinced that humanity is a scourge upon the earth. Because of this they grab onto these predictions hook, line, and sinker. Then blast them to the world. Nothing will ever convince them they are wrong in their belief anymore that you can convince a Jehovah’s Witness that there is no Jehovah. Also in 2009, United Kingdom Prime Minister Gordon Brown said there was only 50 days left to save Earth. In this instance we just have an ignorant man, a non-scientist, who believes what the false prophets tell him and then, like a good acolyte, he shares the false prophet’s prediction with the intent of increasing number of followers. The U.N.’s top climate scientist said in 2007 we only had four years to save the world. This was the prediction of Rajendra Pachauri. Like all false prophets, his time was off. Environmentalists warned in 2002 the world had a decade. George Monbiot was convinced that we had only a decade before global warming would make growing food crops in much of the world impossible, that we would have to choose between farming or saving the world’s animals, that we wouldn’t be able to do both. We are feeding more people today than ever before and there’s no reason why the trend cannot continue for the foreseeable future. And we haven’t had to destroy the world’s wildlife to accomplish this. In 1989 Noel Brown, a senior environmental official, stated that entire nations would not survive rising sea levels and that we must reverse this trend by the year 2000 or it would be too late. What can I say that I haven’t already said? The sad fact is that even though this prediction has not come true the U.N. continues to raise the same alarm year after year. The United Nations warned in 2005 that the effects of global warming would lead to massive population disruptions as areas of the world became uninhabitable. According to the report we would see these results within 10 years. What we’ve actually seen is that humanity is very good at “massive population disruptions,” not from global warming but from wars, terrorists, and evil rulers. |
All of this cold weather is a result of global warming. This idiocy has been touted by no one less than the White House Science “Czar” John Holdren. This is standard practice amongst progressive scientists or politicians; when the facts don’t support your initial prediction, blame the results on someone or something else. However, blaming unexpected, extremely cold winters on global warming is taking this idiocy much more than one step too far. |
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| Climate scientists predicted that warming temperature due to CO2 emissions would cause the polar ice caps to melt. Since the Antarctic Ice Cap averages 7000 feet thick, and in some places 15,000 feet thick, the melting would raise sea levels significantly. I’m not sure this is true, if I have a glass of water filled with ice, as the ice melts the water doesn’t rise. I can see where melting glaciers would cause sea levels to rise, but it seems to me that sea ice melting would have very little effect on sea level rise. However, this is moot, as the Antarctic Ice Sheet is not melting; it is growing in size. The area that seems to be melting has nothing to with global warming, but instead is in the midst of an undersea volcano. |
The ignorant, arrogant President Obama made many ridiculous predictions. The fact that he probably hasn’t had any scientific education since high school, has not stopped him from spouting his “wisdom” to the world. He’s blamed everything from raging fires, crippling drought, and powerful storms on AGW. The fact that every one of these is on a downward trend, even as CO2 emissions are not only continuing but increasing, doesn’t stop him from making these unproven, ridiculous statements. His height of arrogance happened in June of 2008 when Obama declared: “I am absolutely certain that generations from now, we will be able to look back and tell our children … this was the moment when the rise of the oceans began to slow and our planet began to heal.” I’m positive that he actually believes that he was put on the earth to save it from the destruction caused by humanity, especially western man. If he wasn’t a past president, they would have long called the men in white coats to take him where he couldn’t harm himself or others. |
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Much of what I’ve reported above came from an excellent article in the New American. The rest comes from years of researching “sky is falling” frauds and ELEs (extinction level events). |
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Copyright 2017 Brad Fregger
